Statistical Modelling of Pre-Impact Velocities in Car Crashes

The law wants to determine if any party involved in a car crash is guilty. The Dutch court invokes the expertise of the Netherlands Forensic Institute (NFI) to answer this question. We discuss the present method of the NFI to deter- mine probabilities on pre-impact car velocities, given the evidence from the crash scene. A disadvantage of this method is that it requires a prior distribution on the velocities of the cars involved in the crash. We suggest a different approach, that of statistical significance testing, which can be carried out without a prior. We explain this method, and apply it to a toy model. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is performed on a simple two-car collision model

A local limit theorem for the critical random graph

We consider the limit distribution of the orders of the k largest components in the Erd¿os-Rényi random graph inside the critical window for arbitrary k. We prove a local limit theorem for this joint distribution and derive an exact expression for the joint probability density function

Monte Carlo study of the hull distribution for the q=1 Brauer model

We study a special case of the Brauer model in which every path of the model has weight q=1. The model has been studied before as a solvable lattice model and can be viewed as a Lorentz lattice gas. The paths of the model are also called self-avoiding trails. We consider the model in a triangle with boundary conditions such that one of the trails must cross the triangle from a corner to the opposite side. Motivated by similarities between this model, SLE(6) and critical percolation, we investigate the distribution of the hull generated by this trail (the set of points on or surrounded by the trail) up to the hitting time of the side of the triangle opposite the starting point. Our Monte Carlo results are consistent with the hypothesis that for system size tending to infinity, the hull distribution is the same as that of a Brownian motion with perpendicular reflection on the boundary.Comment: 21 pages, 9 figure

Transforming fixed-length self-avoiding walks into radial SLE_8/3

We conjecture a relationship between the scaling limit of the fixed-length ensemble of self-avoiding walks in the upper half plane and radial SLE with kappa=8/3 in this half plane from 0 to i. The relationship is that if we take a curve from the fixed-length scaling limit of the SAW, weight it by a suitable power of the distance to the endpoint of the curve and then apply the conformal map of the half plane that takes the endpoint to i, then we get the same probability measure on curves as radial SLE. In addition to a non-rigorous derivation of this conjecture, we support it with Monte Carlo simulations of the SAW. Using the conjectured relationship between the SAW and radial SLE, our simulations give estimates for both the interior and boundary scaling exponents. The values we obtain are within a few hundredths of a percent of the conjectured values

Exact sampling of self-avoiding paths via discrete Schramm-Loewner evolution

We present an algorithm, based on the iteration of conformal maps, that produces independent samples of self-avoiding paths in the plane. It is a discrete process approximating radial Schramm-Loewner evolution growing to infinity. We focus on the problem of reproducing the parametrization corresponding to that of lattice models, namely self-avoiding walks on the lattice, and we propose a strategy that gives rise to discrete paths where consecutive points lie an approximately constant distance apart from each other. This new method allows us to tackle two non-trivial features of self-avoiding walks that critically depend on the parametrization: the asphericity of a portion of chain and the correction-to-scaling exponent.Comment: 18 pages, 4 figures. Some sections rewritten (including title and abstract), numerical results added, references added. Accepted for publication in J. Stat. Phy

Note on SLE and logarithmic CFT

It is discussed how stochastic evolutions may be linked to logarithmic conformal field theory. This introduces an extension of the stochastic Loewner evolutions. Based on the existence of a logarithmic null vector in an indecomposable highest-weight module of the Virasoro algebra, the representation theory of the logarithmic conformal field theory is related to entities conserved in mean under the stochastic process.Comment: 10 pages, LaTeX, v2: version to be publishe

Congenital and neonatal malaria in a rural Kenyan district hospital: An eight-year analysis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Malaria remains a significant burden in sub-Saharan Africa. However, data on burden of congenital and neonatal malaria is scarce and contradictory, with some recent studies reporting a high burden. Using prospectively collected data on neonatal admissions to a rural district hospital in a region of stable malaria endemicity in Kenya, the prevalence of congenital and neonatal malaria was described.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>From 1^stJanuary 2002 to 31^stDecember 2009, admission and discharge information on all neonates admitted to Kilifi District Hospital was collected. At admission, blood was also drawn for routine investigations, which included a full blood count, blood culture and blood slide for malaria parasites.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of the 5,114 neonates admitted during the eight-year surveillance period, blood slide for malaria parasites was performed in 4,790 (93.7%). 18 (0.35%) neonates with <it>Plasmodium falciparum </it>malaria parasitaemia, of whom 11 were admitted within the first week of life and thus classified as congenital parasitaemia, were identified. 7/18 (39%) had fever. Parasite densities were low, ≤50 per μl in 14 cases. The presence of parasitaemia was associated with low haemoglobin (Hb) of <10 g/dl (χ²10.9 P = 0.001). The case fatality rate of those with and without parasitaemia was similar. <it>Plasmodium falciparum </it>parasitaemia was identified as the cause of symptoms in four neonates.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Congenital and neonatal malaria are rare in this malaria endemic region. Performing a blood slide for malaria parasites among sick neonates in malaria endemic regions is advisable. This study does not support routine treatment with anti-malarial drugs among admitted neonates with or without fever even in a malaria endemic region.</p

Geometric Exponents, SLE and Logarithmic Minimal Models

In statistical mechanics, observables are usually related to local degrees of freedom such as the Q < 4 distinct states of the Q-state Potts models or the heights of the restricted solid-on-solid models. In the continuum scaling limit, these models are described by rational conformal field theories, namely the minimal models M(p,p') for suitable p, p'. More generally, as in stochastic Loewner evolution (SLE_kappa), one can consider observables related to nonlocal degrees of freedom such as paths or boundaries of clusters. This leads to fractal dimensions or geometric exponents related to values of conformal dimensions not found among the finite sets of values allowed by the rational minimal models. Working in the context of a loop gas with loop fugacity beta = -2 cos(4 pi/kappa), we use Monte Carlo simulations to measure the fractal dimensions of various geometric objects such as paths and the generalizations of cluster mass, cluster hull, external perimeter and red bonds. Specializing to the case where the SLE parameter kappa = 4p'/p is rational with p < p', we argue that the geometric exponents are related to conformal dimensions found in the infinitely extended Kac tables of the logarithmic minimal models LM(p,p'). These theories describe lattice systems with nonlocal degrees of freedom. We present results for critical dense polymers LM(1,2), critical percolation LM(2,3), the logarithmic Ising model LM(3,4), the logarithmic tricritical Ising model LM(4,5) as well as LM(3,5). Our results are compared with rigourous results from SLE_kappa, with predictions from theoretical physics and with other numerical experiments. Throughout, we emphasize the relationships between SLE_kappa, geometric exponents and the conformal dimensions of the underlying CFTs.Comment: Added reference

LERW as an example of off-critical SLEs

Two dimensional loop erased random walk (LERW) is a random curve, whose continuum limit is known to be a Schramm-Loewner evolution (SLE) with parameter kappa=2. In this article we study ``off-critical loop erased random walks'', loop erasures of random walks penalized by their number of steps. On one hand we are able to identify counterparts for some LERW observables in terms of symplectic fermions (c=-2), thus making further steps towards a field theoretic description of LERWs. On the other hand, we show that it is possible to understand the Loewner driving function of the continuum limit of off-critical LERWs, thus providing an example of application of SLE-like techniques to models near their critical point. Such a description is bound to be quite complicated because outside the critical point one has a finite correlation length and therefore no conformal invariance. However, the example here shows the question need not be intractable. We will present the results with emphasis on general features that can be expected to be true in other off-critical models.Comment: 45 pages, 2 figure